I also give more weight to passing offense and defense, since in today's NFL most games are won or lost based on the ability to move the ball and prevent the other team from moving the ball aerially.įinally, I give some extra (albeit subjective) weight to two factors: Explosive plays and unit-level strengths and weaknesses. So after making some adjustments for strength of schedule, I look at yards per play much more than total points or points per play. Over the long run, yards are more predictive of future points than previous points. It’s far more instructive to analyze teams on the basis of yards accumulated and allowed on a per-play basis. While past points aren't meaningless, they can be misleading. ![]() It's far too simple to compare teams by looking at points scored and points against. ![]() Skip To: Matthew Freedman | Sean Koerner | Chris Raybon | Stuckey Matthew Freedman There are a bevy of NFL statistics at our finger tips, but which are the most important to consider when betting?Ī panel of our top experts reveal the stats they use to inform their analysis and picks, from turnover margin to special teams and everything in-between.
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